CO-INTEGRATION AND ERROR CORRECTION MODELING OF AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT: THE CASE OF CASSAVA IN ONDO STATE, NIGERIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51594/ijae.v3i3.238Abstract
Cassava is an important food crop in Nigeria providing households food security and income. Cassava production has received government and stakeholders’ intervention dating back to the 1970s. Nevertheless, increased and sustainable production of the crop is under threat by exogenous factors of climate change and variability. This study investigates this concern by assessing the effects of climate change on cassava output in Ondo state, Nigerian using Co-integration and Error-Correction Modelling (ECM). Time series (1971-2010) data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Abuja, Nigerian Meteorological Agency Oshodi, Lagos. The results of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test revealed that all variables (cassava yield and climate variables; rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity) all have unit root problems (non-stationary) but become stationary after the first difference 1(1). The results confirmed a long-run equilibrium relationship between all identified variables as the absolute values of the variables are greater than their critical values at a 5% level of significance for both trace statistics and maximal-eigen values. The ECM result shows that rainfall exerts a positive effect, while temperature and relative humidity exert negative effects on cassava production. This indicates the sensitivity of cassava to climate change in the study area. Thus, increased and sustained production of cassava for household’s food security income would be attainable by designing programmes and policies geared toward reducing the effect of climate change.
Keywords: Co-integration, Error-Correction Modeling, Cassava Output, Climate Variability, Nigeria.
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Copyright (c) 2021 Adeyose Emmanuel Akinbola
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